My house was flooded in the Northern Front Range floods of 2013, so I do get a kick out of flood stories. There, lots of moisture kept coming in normally dry Sept and early Oct and the evening before the final deluge I told my wife, "Don't worry, it does this all the time in Vermont." Since then she uses this against me whenever I'm claiming "It will all be fine..."
That has a nice discussion/definition of precipitable water "PWAT" which is often referred to in the great "Area Forecast Discussion" on our GJ NWS site. It's great because the meteorologists always highlight their uncertainties with their own regional and local predictions.
And, from the American Geophysical Union August 2026 "Earth's Future" journal:
"Pluvial" being a fancy word for "abundant rain" or "wet!"
In the "Plain Language Summary:"
"Here, we show that droughts accompanied by extreme heat are much more likely to transition into intense rainfall events than droughts without heat. These heat-related transitions occur more frequently, develop faster, and produce stronger and longer-lasting rainfall. This happens because heat alters the atmosphere in ways that make it easier for rainfall to be triggered once moisture becomes available." Seems relatable here now.
I can't find the link, but I recall some hyper local simulations of near future climate in the Western US that showed slightly more annual precip in the SW up to about the Elks and W. Elks, but with more falling during monsoons instead of winter.
So, there's some nerdy stuff to baffle anyone who says record floods and aridification are a contradiction and "the climate is always changing." Not like this it ain't. Or, as my science teacher buddy simply says, "The atmosphere has more energy," which can manifest as "heat domes" or deluges, even back to back. I seem to be more long-winded.
Flash floods are a Thing. Once picked up our tent at midnight and moved it to higher ground minutes before a VW Beetle washed past where it was pitched. Never lost a house like you. Zion/Springdale used to have a very dramatic flash flood film showing at their IMAX theatre; now we can watch the one from 3 weeks ago on YouTube.
“we have to remember that they tended to be white guys”
You’re funny. And I cannot wrap my head around how much research you do. Well, you probably just don’t have a life.
My house was flooded in the Northern Front Range floods of 2013, so I do get a kick out of flood stories. There, lots of moisture kept coming in normally dry Sept and early Oct and the evening before the final deluge I told my wife, "Don't worry, it does this all the time in Vermont." Since then she uses this against me whenever I'm claiming "It will all be fine..."
Recent measurements show that our warmer atmosphere holds almost 10% more water than just 1980, let alone "pre-industrial" era of 250 ppm CO2 and lower CH4, etc. https://skepticalscience.com/atmosphere-set-water-vapor-record.html
That has a nice discussion/definition of precipitable water "PWAT" which is often referred to in the great "Area Forecast Discussion" on our GJ NWS site. It's great because the meteorologists always highlight their uncertainties with their own regional and local predictions.
And, from the American Geophysical Union August 2026 "Earth's Future" journal:
"Hot Droughts Increase the Likelihood and Impacts of Abrupt Drought-to-Pluvial Transitions Worldwide" Open access at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2026EF008638
"Pluvial" being a fancy word for "abundant rain" or "wet!"
In the "Plain Language Summary:"
"Here, we show that droughts accompanied by extreme heat are much more likely to transition into intense rainfall events than droughts without heat. These heat-related transitions occur more frequently, develop faster, and produce stronger and longer-lasting rainfall. This happens because heat alters the atmosphere in ways that make it easier for rainfall to be triggered once moisture becomes available." Seems relatable here now.
I can't find the link, but I recall some hyper local simulations of near future climate in the Western US that showed slightly more annual precip in the SW up to about the Elks and W. Elks, but with more falling during monsoons instead of winter.
So, there's some nerdy stuff to baffle anyone who says record floods and aridification are a contradiction and "the climate is always changing." Not like this it ain't. Or, as my science teacher buddy simply says, "The atmosphere has more energy," which can manifest as "heat domes" or deluges, even back to back. I seem to be more long-winded.
Flash floods are a Thing. Once picked up our tent at midnight and moved it to higher ground minutes before a VW Beetle washed past where it was pitched. Never lost a house like you. Zion/Springdale used to have a very dramatic flash flood film showing at their IMAX theatre; now we can watch the one from 3 weeks ago on YouTube.