Your math looks good; thank you for doing the work.
One our truisms is the 1922 Colorado River Compact was made during a wet cycle, which caused the current day allocations to be impossible to meet. But the annual Bu Rec inflow estimates are always wrong! I've wondered if maybe their culture is to be irrationally optimistic. Maybe they're like Realtors: "Live your dreams in this charming little fixer-upper." They put a huge amount of effort into SnoTel reports, which are great - for skiing - but dramatically overestimate actual in-flows.
The Great Water Reckoning of 2026 has just about arrived. I don’t think most of the lower basin citizens (particularly California) who rely, even partially, on Colorado River have any clue about this. MWD has enough storage to meet demands for now so the media attention is not where it might otherwise be. Heaven help us all.
Thanks very much for the environmental updates! I'm saddened by the fact most of the news is bad.
Your math looks good; thank you for doing the work.
One our truisms is the 1922 Colorado River Compact was made during a wet cycle, which caused the current day allocations to be impossible to meet. But the annual Bu Rec inflow estimates are always wrong! I've wondered if maybe their culture is to be irrationally optimistic. Maybe they're like Realtors: "Live your dreams in this charming little fixer-upper." They put a huge amount of effort into SnoTel reports, which are great - for skiing - but dramatically overestimate actual in-flows.
btw, todays Ezra Klein podcast on climate and energy policy is very good: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-bill-mckibben.html
The Great Water Reckoning of 2026 has just about arrived. I don’t think most of the lower basin citizens (particularly California) who rely, even partially, on Colorado River have any clue about this. MWD has enough storage to meet demands for now so the media attention is not where it might otherwise be. Heaven help us all.