I just got off a Grand Canyon raft trip and wanted to comment on just that one aspect of this issue-ie: recreational rafting on the Grand Canyon in a future that might have low(er) releases. I know there are much more important issues and consequences to dwindling water in Powell. The first half of our trip was on 7-9k cfs, the second half on basically 8k constant. Though a 'different experience' than 20k cfs, it was a great trip as always, with some of the 'bigs' easier, some harder-but all very doable. Commercial operations (w/ their 30foot+ motor rigs) may have a different opinion when the summer starts. This is a multi-million dollar business. How low can the river get and still be run through the GC regularly? We shall see but probably 4k-maybe lower.
Thanks for the Grand Canyon report! For now I wouldn't expect them to go any lower than 8,000 cfs for any sustained period, since 6 million acre-feet per year = a daily average of about 8,200 cfs. Also, the Grand Canyon Protection Act has a minimum release of 8,000 cfs from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and a minimum of 5,000 cfs overnight.
Of course, if Powell's levels start dropping below 3,500 feet, then they may have to cut back releases even further, potentially violating the GCPA and putting the Upper Basin in violation of the Colorado River Compact. And if BoR has to go to a run-of-the-river scenario, which is extreme but not impossible, releases could easily drop down to 2k or 3k cfs during a dry August or September.
But a "super el-niño" is not good news overall, see Bill McKibbon's excellent explanation on his substack.
I just got off a Grand Canyon raft trip and wanted to comment on just that one aspect of this issue-ie: recreational rafting on the Grand Canyon in a future that might have low(er) releases. I know there are much more important issues and consequences to dwindling water in Powell. The first half of our trip was on 7-9k cfs, the second half on basically 8k constant. Though a 'different experience' than 20k cfs, it was a great trip as always, with some of the 'bigs' easier, some harder-but all very doable. Commercial operations (w/ their 30foot+ motor rigs) may have a different opinion when the summer starts. This is a multi-million dollar business. How low can the river get and still be run through the GC regularly? We shall see but probably 4k-maybe lower.
Thanks for the Grand Canyon report! For now I wouldn't expect them to go any lower than 8,000 cfs for any sustained period, since 6 million acre-feet per year = a daily average of about 8,200 cfs. Also, the Grand Canyon Protection Act has a minimum release of 8,000 cfs from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. and a minimum of 5,000 cfs overnight.
Of course, if Powell's levels start dropping below 3,500 feet, then they may have to cut back releases even further, potentially violating the GCPA and putting the Upper Basin in violation of the Colorado River Compact. And if BoR has to go to a run-of-the-river scenario, which is extreme but not impossible, releases could easily drop down to 2k or 3k cfs during a dry August or September.