
Trump Ticker
“Tariffs are simply taxes. Conservatives once united against new taxes. Taxing trade will mean less trade and higher prices.” — Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, on X/Twitter
I used to live in Bulgaria, and one of the things that always struck me was the ubiquity of American whiskey there. Bars often sported big Jack Daniels signs and most stores sold Makers Mark, Jim Beam, and even Bulleit Bourbon. I guess I shouldn’t have been surprised, given the globalized market, but I did find it notable to find such a distinctly American product taking up so much shelf space in a Bulgarian market.
Donald Trump’s tariff frenzy, however, could threaten the European thirst for American booze. Last week Trump slapped sizable tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, and has threatened to do so on the European Union, as well. So far, Mexico and Canada have retaliated with their own tariffs on U.S. imports and the EU will surely follow suit if provoked. That will mean Bulgarians will have to pay a lot more for that good ol’ Kentucky Bourbon than for Rakia, their national, high-octane spirit.
Meanwhile, Americans will pay more for tequila, avocados, tomatoes, cars, and lumber. At least some parts of the country will see gasoline prices increase, as well. And to what end? Who the hell knows. It seems that even the Trump administration is confused, blindly lobbing trade-warheads at some of our closest allies to achieve vague political ends without considering the consequences.
Tariffs can serve a purpose. They are a form of protectionism — that is, they can protect American industry — that were once used to push back on the rising tide of globalism. Targeted tariffs can help U.S. companies by slapping a tax on imported goods so that they are no longer cheaper than domestic ones. Retailers are then more likely to purchase domestic goods, thereby supporting U.S. manufacturers.
Let’s say, for example, that a Chinese company started selling electric vehicles in the U.S. market. Because China has low labor costs and many companies are owned by or subsidized by the government, they can sell those cars far cheaper than U.S. manufacturers, cutting into Tesla’s market share (or forcing Tesla to lower its prices to compete). A tariff on those vehicles would increase the price Americans pay for it, thereby making Teslas cost-competitive once again. Freeze the frame there, and it would appear that tariffs are good for Tesla, for the people who work there, and for American manufacturing — albeit not so great for consumers looking for an affordable EV.
Yet this false sense of triumph relies on a simplistic worldview, in which shipping containers full of imported products flood American ports and then return empty to their points of origin. That’s not the case. In fact, goods move back and forth across a complex — sometimes illogical — global web of markets. Chinese consumers, for example, buy a lot of Teslas: More than 650,000 last year. If China retaliates and puts a similar tariff on American products, increasing the cost there for Teslas, it will inevitably hurt the company’s sales.
The U.S. imports 8 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products each day, then turns around and exports more than 10 million barrels of the same stuff overseas. American producers ship seafood to China for processing, and then it’s sent back to American consumers in the form of fish sticks and other products. The U.S. imports huge amounts of produce from Mexico, but exports 19 million metric tons of corn to Mexico each year. Tug on one strand of the web, and it inevitably reverberates in unforeseen ways throughout the rest of it, ultimately hurting both U.S. suppliers and consumers.
Trump seems to think that he can replace Canadian crude by turning some valve and rerouting Permian Basin oil to Midwest and Rocky Mountain refineries. As is often the case, Trump fails to understand the way things work. Many U.S. refineries, particularly in the Midwest, are set up to process heavy (high density), sour (high sulfur) crude oil, like the kind that comes from Canada’s tar sands, rather than the light, sweet crude emanating from the Permian Basin. Also, the pipeline system is set up to bring crude from Canada to those U.S. refineries, meaning they can’t just decide to shift over to U.S. crude just because Trump decided he doesn’t like Justin Trudeau — or whatever his motivation is.
Even if the targeted countries don’t retaliate, U.S. consumers still pay more in the form of higher prices. That means people will buy fewer of those goods, and that eventually hurts U.S. distributors, transporters, and retailers. A tariff on imported solar panels, for example, is good for the nascent domestic PV manufacturing industry. But it ups prices for folks who want to put solar panels on their roof or build utility-scale arrays, and for the companies that sell and install those panels.
In some cases, the negative effects ripple even further down the supply chain. Tariffs on imported clothing, for example, can hit U.S. cotton farmers, since many “Made in China” shirts are woven from American cotton — the U.S. ships $1.5 billion worth of cotton each year to China alone, and another $4 billion worth to other overseas markets. So not only will your clothes cost more, but Arizona cotton farmers will also lose sales.
The tariffs could even trickle down to the West’s public lands. U.S. farmers rely on potash imports from Canada, and utilities get a lot of reactor fuel from Canada. The tariffs will up prices, ultimately leading to higher food and electricity prices, but also making domestic uranium and potash production more profitable. And that will spur more mining in potash and uranium-rich areas such as southeastern Utah’s Paradox formation.
Democrats are being somewhat disingenuous when they condemn tariffs outright, just because they are being pushed by Trump. Tariffs are a tool that, if wielded properly and precisely, can yield positive outcomes for American industry. But using them as a bludgeon-like weapon to punish our most important trading partners for things that are out of their control will only harm American consumers and businesses through higher prices. Which is a bit weird since so many people purportedly voted for Trump because he would lower grocery prices.
For Trump, however, that’s beside the point. He values political theater over his constituents’ wellbeing every time. Just days after imposing the tariffs he delayed the ones on Canada and Mexico because they agreed to send troops to their respective borders to try to stop the flow of fentanyl and undocumented migrants. Thing is, Mexico did exactly the same thing in 2019 and 2021 when Biden was president, without the threat of tariffs.
Some numbers to consider:
Trump’s tariffs, so far, are 25% on all imports from Canada and Mexico*, except for energy products from Canada, which will get a 10% tariff. Both countries have levied retaliatory tariffs on American products. Imports from China will all be hit with a 10% tariff; that country’s leaders have vowed retaliatory measures, but hasn’t been specific.
*Canada and Mexico tariffs were delayed for one month after the countries agreed to beef up border security.
156 million Barrels of crude oil and petroleum products imported to the U.S. from Canada and Mexico in November 2024. U.S. refiners and consumers will now pay at least 10% more for these products, which will likely ripple out to other goods. The good news is that higher prices tend to dampen demand, meaning people will drive less and pollute less and look to purchase more efficient cars.
68 million Barrels of crude oil and petroleum products the U.S. exported to Canada and Mexico in November 2024. This will also be hit with tariffs from the respective countries.
5.1 million Barrels of Canada crude processed at the Denver-area Suncor facility, Colorado’s only petroleum refinery, in 2023.
178 billion cubic feet Volume of U.S. natural gas exported to Mexico in November of last year. Retaliatory tariffs from Mexico would make this more expensive for consumers there, driving them to import from elsewhere and hurting the U.S. natural gas drillers, who are already struggling.
$45.38 billion Total value of U.S. agricultural products imported into the U.S. from Mexico in 2023, which includes 5 million metric tons of avocados, 1.8 million metric tons of tomatoes, 3.7 million metric tons liters of beer, and 248 million metric tons liters of tequila. Prices on these goods will increase by 25%, potentially harming Mexico’s economy and driving more people to migrate northward.
$28.38 billion Total value of U.S. agricultural products exported to Mexico in 2023, which includes 18.6 million metric tons of corn, 4.77 million tons of soybeans, and 1.1 million tons of pork products.
$886 million Total value of U.S. produced distilled spirits exported to the European Union in 2023.
25% Portion of U.S. consumed softwood lumber that is imported from Canada. The tariffs, layered atop existing import duties, will likely increase already steep building costs in the U.S. That will make it even more expensive to rebuild the thousands of homes destroyed in the Los Angeles-area fires. But it also may push builders to use different, less flammable materials.
10.5 million metric tons: Amount of potash the U.S. imported from Canada in 2023, making up about 89% of all potash imports. U.S. mines produce just 400,000 metric tons per year.
27% Portion of uranium used in the U.S. in 2023 that was imported from Canada. This number is likely to rise in coming years as the ban on enriched uranium imports from Russia takes effect.
Data sources: Energy Information Administration, World Bank, USGS, USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, International Trade Administration.
Speaking of political theater Trumping Americans’ wellbeing … It turns out that when Trump said he sent the military into California to open the big valves and send water from the Pacific Northwest to Los Angeles to douse the fires he wasn’t lying outright. A sort-of branch of the military, the Army Corps of Engineers, did open the floodgates of two dams on the Tulare River and release a bunch of water. We stand corrected!
Or not. See, the water didn’t go anywhere near Los Angeles. It just ran downstream to farmland in the San Joaquin Valley, where it was not needed. In fact, the little stunt drained the reservoirs of water that was being stored for when the farmers do need it, in the spring and summer. Ian James and Jessica Garrison did the full rundown for the Los Angeles Times.
🌵 Public Lands 🌲
The U.S. Senate voted last week to confirm fossil fuel booster and former North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum to lead the Interior Department and oversee energy development on federal lands. And yesterday Burgum signed the first round of orders to “unleash American energy.” The orders more or less reiterate Trump’s first-day round of executive orders, and still are lacking in details. The overall plan remains the same: gut environmental protections and the agencies that are supposed to carry them out.
🥵 Aridification Watch 🐫
It’s early February, which means it’s time for a snowpack check-in. And it doesn’t look so great in most places. I’m going to keep this short because it’s basically a repeat of the early January report, and because this is the beginning of what is usually the snowiest time of year. So there’s still time for things to improve.

And this is the wide range of what this might mean for Lake Powell this year (Water Year 2025) and next year.

As John Fleck points out at his Inkstain blog, an important takeaway from this forecast is the most likely Glen Canyon Dam releases of just 7.48 million acre-feet this year and next. That could lead the Upper Basin states toward a violation of the Colorado River Compact’s mandate that it deliver at least 75 MAF to the Lower Basin every ten years, and provide half of Mexico’s allotment of 1.5 MAF annually, for a total of 82.5 MAF every ten years, or an average of 8.25 MAF per year.
Drilling down a bit into the Upper Colorado River watershed, we find that the snowpack is rather dismal down south, and improves as one goes northward. Many SNOTEL sites in Arizona and southern New Mexico, even those at higher elevations, are recording zero snowpack. The chances that there will be boatable flows on the Salt River this year are zero to slim; ditto with the Dolores River below McPhee Dam.
Once you get into the southwestern Colorado high country, the situation improves mildly. But as you can see from the Columbus Basin SNOTEL site in the La Plata Mountains, it’s still somewhat dismal. Further north at Copper Mountain, however, things are looking pretty darned good.

📸 Parting Shots 🎞️
When we talk about the Colorado River, we often talk of the Upper Basin, Lower Basin, and the dividing point: Lee (or Lees or Lee’s) Ferry. These aren’t just abstract concepts. Lees Ferry is a real place several miles below Glen Canyon Dam. Because it is at a sort of geological divide, where Glen Canyon ends and Marble Canyon begins, the topography is such that one can relatively easily get down to the river on both banks, making it a river crossing since time immemorial. That’s why Lee positioned his ferry here back in the day. Now the streamflow gauge that measures how much water is passing from the Upper Basin to the Lower Basin sits here, along with a sparse campground, a boat launch (for Grand Canyon trips and upstream trips toward Glen Canyon Dam), some administrative housing, and historic structures.
Aside from its historical and hydrological importance, I find Lees Ferry to be a particularly special place, where deep time reveals itself lasciviously in the soaring sandstone cliffs and the huge limestone ramp seemingly jutting up out of the river. Morning and evening light frolics upon the burnished red stone — Canyon Country alpenglow. There’s an old orchard and homestead at the mouth of the Paria River. And one can climb up a trail hewed into the stone long ago for hauling coal from a mine down to a placer gold mining operation that never really panned out, so to speak.


Great post Jonathan. Snow packs will probably improve but likely not in Arizona and New Mexico given the latest long term forecasts. The Trump/Musk co-administration twins are proving themselves to be total amateurs and bunglers when it comes to their economic policies. As an investor I can assure everyone that there's nothing the market likes less than unpredictability. I predict the thieves will fall out of their marriage of convenience. What a sorry mess. Four more years of this chaos is going to drive the Dow below 20,000. Which is probably where it should be anyway. Lastly, I greatly I enjoyed your closing photo gallery: our beloved West before the bungling civilization came in and messed things up. There's about 7 billion too many of us and the majority of us are bunglers. Our species is just stupid, for want of a kinder word.
Think I'm exaggerating? Look at the current situation.
I’d rather see stuff on cows than Trump from you. Either way it’s all bull.