I am glad you quoted what NOAA says "normal" is when it comes to their forecasts. Use of that term has always bothered me, being a hydrologist with almost (!) a minor in stats. The matter is: there is nothing that is normal. Normal is a pop term for a measure of central tendency, which are better described by the mean, media or mode, all of which are easily calculated from a data set (I know all eyes have glazed-over at this point). To the point: the longer and larger the data set the better; one can cherry pick your data sets to prove your point. All the numbers change, to prove your point.
Bruce Cockburn!
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/02/19/number-of-eagles-killed-by-wind-farms-in-wyoming-severely-underestimated-biologist-says/
I am glad you quoted what NOAA says "normal" is when it comes to their forecasts. Use of that term has always bothered me, being a hydrologist with almost (!) a minor in stats. The matter is: there is nothing that is normal. Normal is a pop term for a measure of central tendency, which are better described by the mean, media or mode, all of which are easily calculated from a data set (I know all eyes have glazed-over at this point). To the point: the longer and larger the data set the better; one can cherry pick your data sets to prove your point. All the numbers change, to prove your point.
Dave