Spring runoff peaks, winners announced

Also: About that energy dominance thing

San Juan Mountain foothills and sunset from the window of a plane. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

🥵 Aridification Watch 🐫

I’m calling it! Spring runoff appears to have peaked on most Western streams — and almost definitely has done so on the streams in this year’s Land Desk Super Predict the Peak Contest.

The good news is, the runoff was later and bigger than a lot of folks — including myself — predicted it would be. The bad news is that the flows were still downright pathetic compared to other years, even though in most cases the peak snowmelt was supplemented by heavy rain, meaning the runoff numbers don’t necessarily reflect a healthy snow year. Which is to say: The megadrought persists across much of the Western United States, with extreme conditions in the Southwest.

Here are the results:

• Animas River in Durango, aka USGS gage 09361500: 2,740 cubic feet per second on June 1.

• North Fork of the Gunnison River near Lazear, aka USGS gage 09136100: 1,280 cfs on June 3.

• Rio Grande at Otowi Bridge, aka USGS gage 08313000: 1,350 cfs on May 14.

• San Miguel River at Uravan, (extra credit for uranium readings!) aka USGS gage 09177000: 1,040 cfs on June 4.

• Colorado River at the Utah-Colorado state line, aka USGS gage 09163500: 11,900 cfs on June 4.

Unfortunately, we had very few entries this year, possibly because these things are really hard to predict. That said, it looks like Andrew High has a winning formula, at least on a few of these stream segments. Here are the winners and their predictions:

• Animas: Andrew High, 2,710 cfs on May 21.

• North Fork: Andrew High, 1,260 cfs on June 7.

• Rio Grande: Jim O’Donnell, 1,150 cfs on May 15.

• San Miguel: B Frank, 692 cfs on May 15.

• Colorado: Andrew High, 13,160 cfs on June 13.

Congratulations, winners! Andrew, B, and Jim, please send me your mailing address and t-shirt size at landdesk@substack.com and I’ll get your prizes in the mail ASAP.

Now, on to the not so happy news. What a difference a year can make. Last year at this time, the West seemed to be on its way to being drought-free, with the exception of New Mexico. Now? Not so much. It’s looking downright grim for New Mexico, Arizona, and southern Nevada, even though the Las Vegas area received a healthy dose of rain in May.

Source: National Drought Monitor.

And, after a couple years of respite, it’s time once again to start worrying about Lake Powell — the barometer of the Colorado River’s health. Thus far this year, the volume of water flowing into the reservoir has been far lower than last year, which already was below normal. Judging by the runoff patterns so far, it appears as if June’s inflows may be even lower than May’s. If the rest of June is hot and dry, prompting greater evaporation from the reservoir, it could actually draw reservoir levels down this month during a time when water levels normally would rise.

The black bars show inflow volumes for the 2025 water year compared to the red bars for 2024. Source: USBR.

Normally Lake Powell’s surface level would jump substantially over the next month or so before dropping later in the summer after all of the mountain snowpack has completely melted. While reservoir levels are currently rising, it likely won’t continue for long. Source: Lake Powell Water-Data

But one of those truths about the West, is that aridification provides no buffer against flooding — especially flash-flooding. Some hikers found that out the hard way last week when a flash flood ripped down Big Horn Canyon in Utah, stranding them on the opposite side of the arroyo from their vehicle. They called for help and Bureau of Land Management rangers and Garfield County deputies responded and rescued the folks, according to the BLM’s Utah office. The Escalante River nearby jumped from 0 cfs to 1,200 cfs in just minutes around the same time. You can see some video of the flash flooding here: www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1036784068519285

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📈 Data Dump 📊

As long as we’re doing the graphs and charts thing, we might as well check in on that ol’ Trumpian “energy dominance” thing. The rig count — which is a snapshot of the number of rigs actively drilling at any given time — is the most accurate indicator of the oil and gas industry’s enthusiasm to extract the fossil fuels. And that verve appears to be waning under Trump. The number of rigs operating in the West has dropped since Trump took office, and is down significantly from the most recent peak in 2023 when, yes, Joe Biden was president and was supposedly waging a “war” on fossil fuels.

The red and blue shades indicate Republican and Democratic administrations, respectively. Source: Baker Hughes.