Play the Predict the Runoff Peak Contest!
Land Desk reader, prolific (and sometimes snarky) commenter, master woodworker, and all around good guy Dave Grossman suggested the Land Desk hold its own Predict the Runoff Peak contest. And he even backed up the suggestion by putting up a prize for the winner: Handcrafted reclaimed-wood coasters! And I’m throwing in a Land Desk t-shirt or tote bag.
So here’s the deal:
Predict the peak spring runoff discharge, in cubic feet per second, for the Colorado River at the Colorado-Utah state line USGS gage. And please include the date you think it will fall on. The winner will get the coasters.
As a separate contest, predict the peak runoff discharge, in cubic feet per second, for the Dolores River at the Gateway USGS gage. The winner will get the t-shirt or the tote bag (winner’s choice).
Example: 11,700 cfs on April 15 (if you think the peak has already past, this would be legit). The winner will be the person closest to the peak discharge. The date will be a tie-breaker. Each person gets only one guess. And you MUST put it in the comment section below (e-mails won’t count … and don’t worry, I’ll open commenting to everyone). Guesses will be accepted until May 10. The winners will be announced in July, or when we’re certain the peak has passed.
So let’s go!
But first, one little note: On Monday, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is going to do a big release of water from Glen Canyon Dam to simulate flood conditions in the Grand Canyon. Yep, you read that right. They’re planning on a 39,500 cfs release, which is mighty big and should make for some fun and terrifying boating downstream. If you’re anywhere near Page next week, I’d suggest going to the dam and watching. It’s quite the spectacle.
Okay. Time to Predict the Peak!
I love seeing all the great Peak Flow guesses! I live on the banks of the Colorado River, below the confluence of the Gunnison River (thus the name of my wood working business Confluence Woodcraft LLC), a bit upstream from the State Line gauge. The river has been a creamy red-brown color for weeks. I am currently thinking the coasters will be Juniper wood with a blue-green resin celebrating the red canyon walls of Ruby Horsethief Canyon where the gauge sits. But maybe I’ll explore color matching the color of the run off...
This is not a prediction on water flow rates, no logistic regression equation for this retired (tired) statistician – I leave that to others wiser than I. This is a comment on the unprecedented amount of water to be released from Lake Powell. It’s weird, seems that all I read and hear about in California is that Lake Powell and Mead have reached critical low levels that are threatening our water supply and generation of hydroelectricity. The justification for this Lake Powell release is to simulate a flood in the Grand Canyon! This seems rather strange to me, but then I don’t claim to be a water capture and delivery expert. If one of Jonathan’s many readers has a contrary view perhaps, they can enlighten this cynical old guy. Thank you.